Why the Titans should draft WR Malik Nabers if he stays on the board

Nabers ran a 4.35-second unofficial 40-yard dash at his LSU Pro Day. He had 89 receptions, 1,569 receiving yards, and 14 receiving touchdowns while sharing the field with Brian Thomas Jr. in 2023.

Every NFL team wishes they had Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, or Ja'Marr Chase on their roster. These are players that single-handedly transform an offense and make life easy for their quarterback. These are players that get paid over $100 million on a new contracts and are worth every penny...they also hardly ever hit free agency.

If you want a game-changing weapon, you have to draft him yourself. The Titans could be in the unique position to land one in the 2024 NFL Draft, and I think this caliber of a player is just too good to pass up.

The Fit

Nabers' talent alone makes him worthy of being the Titans' first-round pick on Thursday night. But he also happen to be a perfect fit for the team's need in 2024 under new head coach Brian Callahan.

Sure, adding another stud wide receiver may seem like more of a luxury at this point. After all, the Titans just dished out a four-year, $92 million contract to Calvin Ridley in free agency. They also signed DeAndre Hopkins the year before.

But one thing the Titans don't currently have is an explosive slot weapon. "I think you're always open to adding to those spots. I mean, we have to have someone emerge for us at the slot position receiver," Callahan told me when I asked him what he still wanted to add to his receiving corps.

Tennessee's internal options include Kyle Philips, Mason Kinsey, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, or maybe even Treylon Burks - Callahan did not mention Burks as one of the in-house options while discussing the Titans' slot receivers in a press conference earlier this offseason.

Nabers spent a lot of time in the slot at LSU. He has the versatility to play both inside and outside, but was PFF's highest graded collegiate wide receiver in the slot in 2023. He was also PFF's highest graded collegiate wide receiver against man coverage. Nabers told me at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine that playing outside is more natural to him, but that playing in the slot is generally easier...He certainly makes it look easy.

Nabers would fit like a glove in the Titans' 2024 offense and life for Will Levis would be a lot easier if he was throwing to Hopkins, Ridley, and Nabers with Callahan calling the players.

But furthermore, Nabers would be a star wide receiver that can grow with Levis for years to come. DeAndre Hopkins is going to be a free agent after the 2024 season and if he doesn't return to Music City, the Titans could once again be searching for a WR2. 

It doesn't feel super realistic to sign another premium wide receiver on the free agent market after paying Ridley this spring and Tennessee may not be positioned to grab a top wide out in the 2025 NFL Draft. All the more reason why you do it now if you get the chance.

The Draft History

There seems to be a commonly believed narrative that draft wide receivers early in the first round doesn't work out. People love referring to the flops of Kevin White and John Ross. Titans fans know all too well about how Corey Davis panned out.

Adam Schefter recently tweeted out some data gathered by ESPN on the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss” at every position based upon whether they signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. As expected, the data (spanning 2000-2019) showed wide receivers to have the lowest hit rate, just 27 percent.

But I have a few issues with this data and a few reasons why it shouldn't be applicable to today's NFL. For starters, judging a draft pick by whether they signed a second contract with the team that drafted them is...silly.

By those standards, DeForest Buckner would be a miss despite being an All-Pro and three-time Pro-Bowl defensive tackle. Buckner was traded to the Colts before getting a second contract with the 49ers. A.J. Brown was not a first round pick, but would also qualify as a "miss." He was traded to the Eagles before getting a new deal with the Titans. It's just not a logical barometer by any means.

I also consider draft data from the 2000's and early 2010's to be irrelevant for the modern NFL. The league has changed so much in just the last 5-10 years. The value at every position is different, the style of offense is different, and the way that teams evaluate players is different. I believe the league has gotten better at evaluating and identifying high-end receiving talent. That much is reflected in recent NFL Draft history.

Since 2020, only five wide receivers have been drafted with a Top 10 pick in the draft. They are Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith. Those players have combined for 10 seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards since 2021 and two AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Awards. That's five really productive wide receivers. 

The five wide receivers drafted in the Top 10 since 2020 have a combined career AV (approximate value) of 129 in 13 combined seasons. All were good picks. 

The same thing cannot be said for the offensive tackles recently drafted in the Top 10. Penei Sewell, drafted by the Lions with the 7th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, is an absolute star. But Sewell is the outlier among tackles taken in recent drafts.

Paris Johnson (ARI) and Darnell Wright (CHI) both graded towards the bottom of the league in PFF blocking grade last season as rookies after being taken in the Top 10. Charles Cross (SEA) improved from his rookie season, but was still below league average in PFF blocking grade in 2023. 

PFF grade is by no means a prefect metric for offensive line play, but can at least provide with some sort of baseline.  

Evan Neal (NYG) is already on his way out of New York. He has been an outcast both on and off the field for the Giants and both parties seem ready to move on. Mekhi Becton (NYJ) allowed the most sacks of any offensive tackle in the NFL last season and has not been signed yet as a free agent.

Jedrick Wills (CLE) has been solid, but is a mystery moving forward after getting knee surgery in December. Andrew Thomas (NYG) had a huge year in 2022 and proceeded to look like shell of himself most recently.

Before Sewell, the last offensive tackle drafted in the Top 10 to be selected to the Pro Bowl was Ronnie Stanley, who was drafted in 2016. The last offensive tackle before Sewell drafted in the Top 10 to be selected as an All-Pro was the Titans' very own Jack Conklin.

Since 2020, the nine offensive tackles drafted in the Top 10 have a combined career approximate value of 162 in 23 combined seasons (compared to 129 in 13 seasons from WRs).

To summarize my point - A wide receiver drafted in the Top 10 in the modern NFL might be surprisingly more likely to hit than an offensive tackle. 

There is no guarantee that Joe Alt becomes a franchise cornerstone player and starts at left tackle for 10 years if he's drafted by the Titans. As we just saw from recent drafts, it's a volatile position. 

While grabbing Alt would certainly be a logical, safe choice (and one that I would endorse), passing on Nabers feels like something the Titans will regret. Malik Nabers is a player that teams are going to look at in a few years and ask "How do we get one of those?"